Are you ready for some bold crypto predictions for 2023? VanEck, one of the leading investment firms in the space, has just released its outlook for the next year, and it’s full of surprises. Here are some of the highlights from their report, and what they mean for you as a Hustler.
What is a Spot Bitcoin ETF?
Before we dive into the predictions, let’s quickly explain what a spot Bitcoin ETF is and why it matters. A spot bitcoin ETF is a type of exchange-traded fund that tracks the actual price of bitcoin, rather than its futures contracts. This means that investors can buy and sell shares of the ETF, which represent a fraction of a bitcoin, without having to deal with the hassle of storing, securing, or transferring the cryptocurrency themselves.
A spot bitcoin ETF would also provide more transparency, liquidity, and accessibility to the bitcoin market, as it would trade on a regulated exchange and follow the same rules and standards as other securities. This would make it easier for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to bitcoin, and potentially drive more demand and adoption for the cryptocurrency.
However, a spot bitcoin ETF has not been approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) yet, despite numerous attempts by various firms, including VanEck. The SEC has cited concerns over fraud, manipulation, custody, and market surveillance as reasons for rejecting or delaying the proposals. In contrast, several bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved and launched in the U.S. in 2021, but they have some drawbacks, such as higher fees, tracking errors, and rollover risks.
VanEck’s Crypto Predictions for 2023
Now that you know what a spot Bitcoin ETF is, let’s see what VanEck thinks will happen in the crypto space in 2023. Here are some of their most interesting predictions, along with our commentary.
| Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|
| The first U.S. spot bitcoin ETF will be approved and launched, following Canada’s example. | This would be a huge milestone for the crypto industry, as it would open the doors for more innovation, competition, and adoption. It would also likely boost the price and popularity of bitcoin, as more investors would flock to the ETF as a convenient and reliable way to access the cryptocurrency. |
| Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high above $100,000, driven by institutional and retail demand, as well as supply constraints. | Bitcoin has been on a historic rally in 2021, reaching over $60,000 in November. The momentum could continue in 2023, as more investors recognize the value proposition of bitcoin as a store of value, a hedge against inflation, and a digital alternative to gold. Moreover, the supply of new bitcoins is limited by design, and the halving event in 2020 reduced the inflation rate to 1.8% per year. This creates a favorable supply-demand dynamic for the cryptocurrency. |
| The U.S. will enter a recession, triggered by the end of the fiscal stimulus, the tapering of the monetary stimulus, and the rise of inflation and interest rates. | The U.S. economy has been recovering from the pandemic-induced slump, thanks to the massive fiscal and monetary support from the government and the central bank. However, these measures are not sustainable in the long run, and could have negative consequences, such as higher inflation and debt levels. The Fed has already signaled that it will start reducing its bond-buying program, and possibly raise interest rates, in 2023. This could dampen the economic growth and consumer confidence, and lead to a recession. |
| Crypto will emerge as a safe haven asset, outperforming traditional assets during the recession. | Crypto, especially bitcoin, has shown some signs of being a safe haven asset, or an asset that retains or increases its value during times of economic turmoil. For instance, bitcoin surged in 2020, amid the global uncertainty and instability caused by the pandemic. Crypto could also benefit from the loss of faith in the fiat currency system, as more people look for alternatives that are decentralized, scarce, and sovereign. |
These are just some of the predictions from VanEck’s report. You can read the full report here to see all 15 of them, and how they could impact your crypto portfolio and strategy.
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Conclusion
2023 could be a pivotal year for the crypto space, as some of the long-awaited developments, such as the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, could finally materialize. VanEck, as one of the leading and most experienced players in the field, has shared its vision and expectations for the next year, and they are quite optimistic and exciting.
Of course, these are just predictions, and not guarantees. The crypto market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and anything could happen. That’s why you should always do your own research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
But, if you’re a Hustler who believes in the potential and future of crypto, you should definitely keep an eye on these predictions, and see how they unfold in 2023. You might be surprised by how much the crypto game could change in just one year.
FAQ’s
What is a spot bitcoin ETF?
A spot bitcoin ETF is a type of exchange-traded fund that tracks the actual price of bitcoin, rather than its futures contracts. This means that investors can buy and sell shares of the ETF, which represent a fraction of a bitcoin, without having to deal with the hassle of storing, securing, or transferring the cryptocurrency themselves.
Why is a spot bitcoin ETF important for the crypto industry?
A spot bitcoin ETF would provide more transparency, liquidity, and accessibility to the bitcoin market, as it would trade on a regulated exchange and follow the same rules and standards as other securities. This would make it easier for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to bitcoin, and potentially drive more demand and adoption for the cryptocurrency.
Has the SEC approved any spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.?
No, the SEC has not approved any spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. yet, despite numerous attempts by various firms, including VanEck. The SEC has cited concerns over fraud, manipulation, custody, and market surveillance as reasons for rejecting or delaying the proposals.
What are the alternatives to a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S.?
The alternatives to a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. are bitcoin futures ETFs, which invest in derivatives contracts based on the price of bitcoin, or bitcoin trust funds, which hold bitcoins in a private entity. However, these alternatives have some drawbacks, such as higher fees, tracking errors, and rollover risks.
Which countries have spot bitcoin ETFs?
Canada, Brazil, and Dubai are some of the countries that have approved and launched spot bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs have attracted significant inflows and trading volumes, indicating strong investor interest and demand.
What are some of the predictions for the crypto space in 2023 by VanEck?
Some of the predictions for the crypto space in 2023 by VanEck are:
1. The first U.S. spot bitcoin ETF will be approved and launched, following Canada’s example.
2. Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high above $100,000, driven by institutional and retail demand, as well as supply constraints.
3. The U.S. will enter a recession, triggered by the end of the fiscal stimulus, the tapering of the monetary stimulus, and the rise of inflation and interest rates.
4. Crypto will emerge as a safe haven asset, outperforming traditional assets during the recession.
Source: (1) VanEck Amends Spot Bitcoin ETF Application, Signals Unique … – Decrypt. https://decrypt.co/203656/vaneck-amends-spot-bitcoin-etf-application-signals-unique-seeding-approach. (2) SEC Rejects Vaneck Bitcoin Spot Market ETF Over Price Manipulation …. https://news.bitcoin.com/sec-rejects-vaneck-bitcoin-spot-market-etf-over-price-manipulation-concerns. (3) VanEck CEO Says “No Chance” on the Future of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. https://cryptonews.com/news/vaneck-ceo-says-no-chance-future-of-spot-bitcoin-etf-us.htm.